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  • Physician Workforce Policy Guidelines for the United States, 2000-2020

    The Council on Graduate Medical Education
    Job Market Context
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    Summary and Recommendations The Council on Graduate Medical Education (COGME) assessed the likely future supply, demand, and need for physicians in the United States (U.S.) through 2020 for both generalist and non-generalist physicians. The models used for the projections are based on historical patterns of use of services and physician practice patterns applied to the expected U.S. population and the physician workforce through 2020. Where changes are occurring or have occurred in the historic patterns, this report incorporates the best available information and discusses their likely implications. The models used build on the physician forecasting models of the Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA)/Bureau of Health Professions (BHPr).1 The use of these models helps to ensure some consistency with prior work and facilitates comparisons of the new forecasts with prior forecasts. Scenarios have been constructed around ...